вЂњOverall, we expect the headline CPI inflation to range between 5.7-6.0% in Q4 FY2022, as compared to the MPC's forecast of 5.7%,вЂќ Nayar said. The average price of the Indian crude oil basket rose to $79.5 a barrel during January 1-11, up 8.6% from $73.4 in December. Besides, heavy rain in some states and fast-spreading Covid-19 could cause supply disruptions. There is uncertainty about the outlook as there has been a broad-based moderation in prices of many food items this month, but crude prices have rallied to record highs. The consumer price index (CPI) slowed 0.4% from November.Д¬ore CPI inflation was largely stable at 5.85% in December. The inflation prints for fuel and tobacco saw a moderation in December. Food inflation in December jumped to 4.5% from 2.6% in November because of vegetables and eggs. The rise in inflation was driven by an uptick in food, clothing and footwear categories, government data showed on Wednesday. ICRAвЂ™s Nayar said, вЂњWhile the performance of several high-frequency indicators such as GST e-way bills, rail freight traffic, electricity generation and non-oil exports displayed a pick-up in December 2021, an unfavourable base may limit the IIP growth to sub-1% in that month.вЂќ вЂњIt is now clear that heavy lifting by the government will have to continue to provide support to the economy,вЂќ said Sunil K Sinha, principal economist, India Ratings and Research. Consumer durables, however, fell 5.6% while capital goods, an indicator of investment, was down 3.7% from a year ago in November.Д®conomists expect restrictions imposed by states to curb the Covid surge to hit business normalisation and called for support measures by the government. The highest jump in output, at 3.8%, was seen in infrastructure or construction goods, followed by 3.5% growth in primary goods, a 2.5% bump in intermediate goods, and a 0.8% increase in consumer non-durables. All sectors were below pre-Covid levels in November with overall IIP at 95.8% of what it was before the pandemic took hold. Mining and manufacturing grew 5.0% and 0.9%, respectively, from the year earlier. Industrial output had grown 4% in October. The index of industrial production (IIP) fell sequentially as well-by around 4% from the previous month. Industrial growth slumped in the middle of the festive season despite the base effect of 1.6% contraction in November of the previous year. вЂњThe duration of the current wave and the severity of restrictions will determine whether policy normalisation can commence in April 2022, or be delayed further to June 2022.вЂќ Kotak Mahindra Bank economist Upasna Bhardwaj said, вЂњOverall, as global financial markets are tightening and inflation remains a worry, we expect the RBI to also take more aggressive measures in the months ahead.вЂќД«efore the third wave struck India, the general expectation had been that the RBI may start to raise rates from next month. вЂњWe now see a negligible likelihood of a change in stance or reverse repo hike in the February 2022 policy review,вЂќ said ICRA chief economist Aditi Nayar. They also called for more support from the government ahead of the budget to beef up economic growth. Most economists, however, expect the central bank will continue to prioritise growth in view of the uncertainty caused by the rapid spread of the Omicron variant while closely watching retail inflation as it inches up to the upper range of its 2-6% target rate. Industrial growth fell to a nine-month low of 1.4% in November as festive demand fizzled out while retail inflation accelerated to a six-month high of 5.59% in December, possibly presenting a policy dilemma for the Reserve Bank of India ( RBI).

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